Development of a Python program for investigation of epidemic developement
Introduction
With the idea of wanting insight into the pandemic with the possibility of vaccination breakthroughs, I developed an advanced version of the SRIVD-model. For this, the following iterative algorithm was created:
(1)
For this, the following variables were used:
- Rate of infection
- Recovery rate
- Death rate
- Vaccination rate
- Susceptibility rate (recovered to susceptible)
- Rate of infection for vaccinated
- Recovery rate for vaccinated
- Death rate for vaccinated
- Susceptibility rate – vaccinated to susceptible
Below, there is a scheme which describes the above equations and my idea.
![](https://lukaswittmann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/scheme-1024x700.png.pagespeed.ce.4H3pk3HD5I.png)
Github
Simulations
It is a lot of fun to just play around with the parameters.
Important: All parameters and ratios I used are made up. I used those, because they seemed somewhat realistic in certain scenarios and show interesting behaviour in the simulations.
![](https://lukaswittmann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/SRIVD_adv_1-1024x416.png)
![](https://lukaswittmann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/SRIVD_adv_2-1024x416.png)
![](https://lukaswittmann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/SRIVD_adv_3-1024x416.png)
![](https://lukaswittmann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/SRIVD_adv_4-1024x416.png)
![](https://lukaswittmann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/SRIVD_adv_5-1024x416.png)
![](https://lukaswittmann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/SRIVD_adv_6-1024x416.png.pagespeed.ce.onMpN0l4uv.png)
![](https://lukaswittmann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/SRIVD_adv_7-1024x416.png.pagespeed.ce.5icB-NscUH.png)
![](https://lukaswittmann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/SRIVD_adv_8-1024x416.png.pagespeed.ce.mGHt-7wYMY.png)
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